Prices up marginally amid a revised weather forecast

Mixed moves were observed along the NBP curve on Tuesday as the market struggled to establish a clear direction.

Small gains were posted across the majority of contracts, with the Winter 25 contract posting the biggest moves of the session after edging 1.7p/therm (0.06p/kWh) higher when compared to its previous close. Near-term supply uncertainty likely served as a key source of support at the front-end.

The latest run of our 14-day model shows that, although demand has been revised to below seasonal norms for Thursday 14th November, it is still expected to be well-above average across the period ending 26th November. Rising imports from the EU reflected the tight supply picture.

According to data from National Gas, EU pipeline flows via the BBL interconnector (Netherlands) continued at a nominal rate of 1.4mcm across yesterday’s session and have advanced to 7.6mcm as of this morning after the IUK interconnector also engaged forward flows (Belgium-UK).

Consistently high Norwegian output also helped to counter the recent uptick in demand and keep a lid on prices. According to data from offshore operator Gassco, flow nominations into Britain’s Easington and St Fergus terminals reached 100.5mcm across Tuesday’s gas-day which was enough to meet approximately 40% of total system demand.

NBP gas prices have opened in negative territory this morning, with the Summer 25 front-season contract currently being offered circa 2p/therm (0.06p/kWh) below its previous settlement, though most other contracts have seen much more muted losses at time of writing.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power