Demand Forecast Increases Pressure on European Gas Storages
Gas prices edged higher at the NBP on Friday as demand forecast increases pressure on already depleted European gas storage levels.
Relatively small gains of circa 1.25p/therm (0.04p/kWh) were posted across the near-curve, amid forecasts of cooler weather and comparatively low storage levels.
According to our 14-day forecast model, demand will move above seasonal norms from Saturday 7th, holding above average until at least 15th December amid reports of colder temperatures in Northwest Europe across the period.
On the storage front, the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows that EU stocks are currently at 85.47% full, down significantly from the same date in 2023 [95.21%] and 2022 [92.83%].
This could drive up injection demand for the front summer so that EU member states can keep in line with the European Commission’s targets.
This morning, gas prices have opened at a slight premium when compared to their previous close, with the new January 25 front-month contract currently being offered circa 1p/therm (0.03p/kWh) higher when compared to its previous settlement, although many contracts are yet to trade at time of writing.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 