Ample LNG supply keeps lid on issues around storage levels

NBP gas prices struggled to establish a clear direction on Monday, with wide intraday swings within the session.

Ample LNG supplies and robust renewable output likely helped to keep a lid on an otherwise storage-focused market.

The end result was a reversal of the previous session’s drops, with the March 25 front-month contract posting daily gains of approximately 2p/therm (0.07p/kWh) as afternoon bullishness halted the downward trajectory seen over the past few sessions.

Plentiful LNG supplies continued to serve as an underlying source of pressure at European hubs.

According to data from National Gas, send out averaged 11% higher compared to the previous session as a steady stream of (primarily US) cargoes continued to signal towards the UK.

Milford Haven port data shows that two vessels, ‘Asklipios’ and ‘Minerva Chios’, could arrive today, both laden with American volumes.

On the storage front, though the European Commission is expected to publish its Clean Industrial Deal by the end of February, hinting that it will promote a more ‘flexible’ storage policy, physical reserves are still significantly lower compared to the past two years.

This will greatly increase the number of storage reinjections required to fill facilities ahead of the front-winter. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, aggregated EU stocks were 40.6% full as of February 23rd; this is compared to 64.06% on the same date last year and 62.92% the year prior.

In other news, energy regulator Ofgem has released an updated domestic price cap effective from April 1st, 2025. The new cap will mean an average British household (paying by direct debit) would spend £111.00 more per year.

The market has softened slightly this morning, with the Summer 25 front-season contract currently being offered circa 1p/therm (0.034p/kWh) below it’s previous settlement.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power