Prices drop amid steep global market sell off

A steep global market sell-off caused Gas prices at the NBP to plunge further on Friday.

Bearish sentiment was strongest at the front-end, with the May 25 front-month contract declining by approximately 7.5p/therm (0.26p/kWh) when compared to its previous close.

Key contracts briefly dipped below their lowest level since September 2024 as US tariff concerns wiped trillions off global markets, significantly downgrading demand forecasts.

Other energy markets also saw sharp losses. According to data from ICE, the Brent crude benchmark contract shed 6.5% of its value on Friday, falling to its lowest level since February 2021.

At the same time, last week’s substantial losses have improved Europe’s storage outlook by incentivising injections due to lower costs.

Additionally, the ongoing halt on Chinese imports of US LNG now seems unlikely to resolve anytime soon, boosting available cargoes and supply for the European market due to the absence of their largest competitor from the spot market.

Maintenance in Norway, the largest exporter to the EU and UK, is expected to ease over the next few days after a brief stint of planned works.

Capacity restrictions have fallen to 62.70 mcm as of this morning (down from 108 mcm on Friday), easing further to 12.6 mcm tomorrow and then holding at a rate of 5.4 mcm oversupply for the rest of the week.

The bears have so far retained a firm grip of the market this morning, with the Winter 25 front-season contract currently being offered at a discount of circa 3p/therm (0.1p/kWh) vs Fridays close, though many contracts have yet to trade at time of writing.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power