A divided market amid news of a 90 day pause on US import tariffs
Gas prices were somewhat divided on Wednesday, with contracts along the near-curve continuing to go down amid stock markets and mild demand fundamentals, while contracts further out held relatively steady as the market remains nervous.
The most significant shift was posted on the May 25 front-month contract, which shed approximately 4.8p/therm (0.16p/kWh) when compared to Wednesday’s close.
The UK’s FTSE 100 index fell an additional 2.8% day-on-day, contributing to a total decline of 10.9% since US President Trump announced tariffs on numerous countries around the world on so-called ‘Liberation Day’.
The FTSE 100 index aggregates the value of the UK’s Top 100 most valuable companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, and its performance is a key indicator of economic health and investor sentiment.
A bearish demand outlook also exerted downward pressure on gas prices. According to the latest run of our 14-day model, demand is expected to dip below seasonal norms from Saturday 12th, from there averaging slightly below average until at least 23rd April.
This anticipated reduction in demand coincides with warmer temperatures and above average solar output expected over the next couple of weeks.
On the storage front, injections have outpaced withdrawals over the past few sessions. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows that EU gas stocks reached 34.97% full on 8th April, recovering slightly from the lowest level of 33.56% observed on 27th March, though a determined and sustained effort will be required in order to meet the Commissions target of 90% fullness by 1st November.
The market opened firm this morning on news that the US will implement a 90-day pause on all new tariffs announced last week, with the exception of China, on which an even higher tariff of 125% is now to be imposed.
ICE data indicates that the Winter 25 front-season contract is currently being offered at a slight premium of approximately 2p/therm (0.07p/kWh) when compared to yesterdays close.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 