Gas pipeline supply outages pressures wholesale prices

Reduced Norwegian capacity combined with a firm wider energy complex pressured NBP gas prices on Tuesday.

The majority of curve contracts shifted higher, with the February 25 front-month contract registering the biggest gains beyond the prompt after rebounding 1.4p/therm (0.05p/kWh) higher, after the market struggled to retain sharp the losses posted in the previous session.

A brief dip in Norwegian output will have had an affect on prices. According to data from offshore operator Gassco, unplanned maintenance at the Troll, Åsgard and Kårstø fields combined to remove 29.6mcm/d off overall export capacity. With that said, Norway-GB flow nominations remained unchanged at close to nameplate capacity, though shortfalls would have been felt elsewhere across Europe’s highly integrated gas networks especially in the context of relatively low storage levels.

As of this morning, unplanned maintenance stands at 10.6mcm/d, with the Åsgard outage expected to continue until next Monday.

Strength across other energy markets such as Brent Crude and Carbon may have also offered limited support. Data from ICE shows that the Carbon EUA benchmark contract gained 1.1% day-on-day and, already this morning, it has already traded at the highest levels observed since December 2023.

The recent boom in British LNG arrivals possibly served as a price ceiling for natural gas prices, preventing the bulls from a more determined push towards the year-to-date highs posted last week.

The latest shipping signals confirm that up to 7 vessels could arrive at the Port of Milford Haven and Isle of Grain terminals over the next 2 weeks.

Storm Éowyn has caused minor delays for the arrival of some cargoes, but none appear to have diverted toward other markets and high wind speeds have only pushed back arrivals by a day or two, keeping supply disruption to a minimum. Natural gas prices have opened in positive territory this morning, with the Summer 25 front-season contract currently being offered circa 2p/therm (0.07p/kWh) higher when compared to its previous settlement, although many are yet to trade at time of writing.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power