Global energy markets prepare for slow down amid trade wars

Gas prices resumed a downward trend on Thursday, pushing weekly market movements into negative territory.

Losses averaging 3p/therm (0.1p/kWh) were posted across contracts for the Summer 25 delivery season, extending into the Winter 25 front-season, which declined by almost 3.6p/therm (0.12p/kWh) when compared to its previous close.

The continued decline of many financial and commodity markets may have served as a primary source of pressure. According to data from the London Stock Exchange, the FTSE 100 index, a major European stock benchmark, tumbled 1.4% compared to its previous close, with the US S&P 500 posting an even larger sell-off of 4.8% by the end of trade.

Global energy markets may be anticipating a potential economic slowdown due to the new ‘reciprocal tariffs’ placed on the vast majority of countries yesterday which, in turn, have the potential to curb demand for fossil fuels due to reduced industrial output.

It wasn’t all plain sailing for the bears, however. Unplanned maintenance over in Norway further restricted exports, by coinciding with the onset of large-scale, planned summertime maintenance across the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS).

Data from operator Gassco shows that the failure of an external power supply removed 54 mcm of capacity at the Kollsnes processing facility as of 15:18 BST.

As a result, pipeline flow nominations into Great Britain’s Easington terminal fell by 61.6% when compared to the previous gas day, leaving the British system undersupplied throughout the session (National Gas).

The market’s bearish momentum has shown no sign of subsiding so far this morning, with the Winter 25 front-season contract managing to break through the 100p/therm psychological level, with significant losses posted across much of the curve, at time of writing.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power