Market reacts favourably to potential US-Russia talks

Gas prices continued their downward trajectory at the NBP on Wednesday, driven by anticipation of US-Russia talks and an upcoming EU gas storage meeting.

The biggest moves were posted across the near curve, with the front-month and front-season contracts posting sizeable daily losses of circa 4.3p/therm (0.15p/kWh) and 3.2p/therm (0.11p/kWh) respectively.

During a NATO summit in Brussels yesterday, new US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized that the war in Ukraine “must end” and described NATO membership for Ukraine as an “(un)realistic outcome” of peace talks.

Later, US President Donald Trump had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which both leaders reportedly agreed to initiate peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, although Ukraine was not a party to these discussions.

Trump mentioned that the two leaders might meet in Saudi Arabia soon, but no date or venue has been confirmed yet.

In other news, the EU’s Gas Coordination Group is set to meet in Brussels later today. Gas storage targets are expected to be a major topic on the agenda, with several member states recently advocating for a relaxation of the current rules. The European Commission currently mandates that the bloc must achieve overall storage levels of at least 90% by November 1st.

Prices continue to ease this morning, with the Summer 25 front-season contract currently being offered around 5p/therm (0.17p/kWh) below its previous close.

The Summer 25/Winter 25 differential has continued to narrow also, with both key contracts being offered at similar levels, at time of writing.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power