Markets await outcome of US talks with Ukraine and Russia

NBP gas prices remained within a narrow range for most of Monday before strengthening slightly towards the close.

The biggest moves beyond the prompt were posted on contracts for late 2026, early 2027 delivery as markets cautiously awaited the outcome of US talks with Ukraine and Russia.

Over the past few days, the US has held separate meetings with delegations from Ukraine and Russia in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The results of the discussions, which are thought to have focused on issues such as a potential ceasefire in the Black Sea and broader peace initiatives, remain unknown.

Last week’s explosion and subsequent fire at the Sudzha cross-border station, crucial for a potential return of Russia-EU gas flows via Ukraine, has added to long-term supply uncertainty, likely feeding risk premium into later-dated contracts.

Although LNG supplies are significantly higher when compared to the same time last year, a sharp rise in planned Norwegian maintenance over the next couple of weeks may tighten supply margins, further discouraging much-needed injections into European storage facilities.

According to data from state-owned operator Gassco, offline capacity will rise to 14.6 mcm/day from 27th March, remaining at this level until Wednesday 2nd April, when the Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin fields, along with the Nyhamna gas processing facility are scheduled to go offline.

This will keep offline capacity above 74 mcm/day for the remainder of that week, exposing Europe to heightened supply risks, should maintenance be delayed for any reason.

This morning, despite opening at a slight discount earlier on, the Summer 25 front-season contract is currently being offered very much in line with its previous settlement, at time of writing.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power