Markets nervous in anticipation of US import tariff announcement

Geopolitical tensions and storage concerns combined to drive gas prices higher at the NBP on Tuesday.

The most notable increases were observed at the front end, with the new May 25 front-month contract surging during afternoon trade to close nearly 5p/therm (0.17p/kWh) higher when compared its previous close.

Market participants are now closely watching for US President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs later on Wednesday.

The specifics of these tariffs remain unclear, including which countries will be affected and to what extent. This uncertainty has already contributed to market volatility, with traders bracing for potential disruptions in global trade and energy markets.

Underlying concerns about EU gas storage levels may also have contributed to the bullish sentiment.

Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows that as of 31st March, EU storage facilities were 33.59% full, nearly 25% lower than the same date last year. A less than ideal winter, characterized by low temperatures and reduced renewable generation, has taken a toll on regional storage reserves.

Additionally, the cessation of Russian pipeline flows via Ukraine at the end of December has further tightened supplies which also served to discourage injections.

The EU now faces a significant challenge to reach its mandated target of 90% fullness by 1st November, especially when compared to recent years.

The NBP has opened firm this morning, with key contracts May 25 and Winter 25 each being offered at a slight premium when compared to yesterdays close, although many have yet to trade at time of writing.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power