Prices down again as Ukraine and USA begin talks

Gas prices at the NBP reduced again amid US-Ukraine talks and relatively strong, diverse supplies.

A determined reversal saw prices reduce, falling by a further 6.5p/therm (0.22p/kWh) when compared to their previous close.

Data from ICE shows that the March 25 contract had fallen to its lowest closing price since October 9th, 2024, with Summer 25 also being offered at a more than 5 week low by the end of the session.

It is possible that yesterday’s reports of a mineral rights agreement between the US and Ukraine may have served as a signal that further diplomatic progress along the path to end the war in Ukraine might be possible over in the near-future.

This, in turn, may have unwound some of the risk premium that has long been built into the market.

Trump has said that Zelensky will meet him at the White House on Friday in order to sign the agreement, opening potential avenues for further discussion regarding terms of a potential peace deal with Russia.

A slight increase in Norway-UK pipeline flows may have served as a secondary source of help alongside consistently high LNG send out.

According to data from offshore operator Gassco, flow nominations into Britain’s Easington and St Fergus terminals reached a combined 69.8mcm on Wednesday an increase of 11.1% when compared to the previous gas-day.

This morning, gas prices have unfortunately opened increased, with the Summer 25 front-season contract currently being offered circa 6p/therm (0.2p/kWh) above its previous settlement, as this week’s theme of sharp intraday volatility continues.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power