Prices go up driven by lower wind generation
NBP gas prices rebounded on Thursday, driven by lower wind output and developments in the Ukraine war.
Contracts along the near-curve experienced the biggest gains, with the September 25 contract surging by just over 7p/therm (0.24p/kWh) when compared to its previous close, as markets participants focused on component contracts of the Summer 25 front-season.
According to data from National Grid, wind turbine generation fell sharply from 7.5GW on Tuesday to just 1.6GW on Wednesday. This prompted a sharp increase in gas-fired (CCGT) power demand, which nearly doubled over the same period, making up 48.1% of the British power mix.
The highly volatile talks regarding a ceasefire/peace deal for Russia and Ukraine remained a key contributor to market volatility.
Despite apparent progress following the Trump-Putin call on Tuesday, in which Russia purportedly agreed to a 30-day partial ceasefire, drone strikes were reportedly exchanged between the two sides, including Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. This contradicts President Putin’s earlier assertion that energy infrastructure would not be targeted with immediate effect as part of a verbal agreement with President Trump.
It remains unclear how this latest round of strikes will affect progress in the coming days and weeks, as the US, Ukraine, UK & EU, and Russia pursue differing solutions for a lasting peace in Eastern Europe.
The market is relatively unchanged so far this morning when compared to yesterdays close, though many contracts have yet to trade at time of writing.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 