Prices resume downward trajectory driven by easing demand
NBP gas prices resumed their downward trajectory on Wednesday, driven lower by easing demand.
According to data from ICE, the Summer 25 front-season contract declined by a further 1.1p/therm (0.038p/kWh) to settle at its lowest level since 7th March, losing 7.6% of its value so far this month.
A gradual reduction in system demand over the past few days may have contributed to the bearish sentiment. As of 4:00 PM GMT, total demand was forecast at just over 200 mcm, a slight decrease from the previous gas day and approximately 43 mcm below the seasonal norm for that date.
Furthermore, the latest run of our 14-day model indicates that demand will average comfortably below seasonal norms until at least 9th April, which could support storage injections over the same period.
The onset of seasonal maintenance across Norwegian gas fields and facilities may have provided some underlying support. The latest round of works will see offline capacity peak at 82.90mcm/d in early April, followed by a short break before even larger capacity restrictions later in the summer.
This morning, gas prices are being offered very much in line with the previous close at time of writing, with the Summer 25 front-season contract still holding below the key 100p/therm level.
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 