Slow LNG supply forces wholesale prices higher

Gas prices were propelled higher at the NBP on Monday, as slowing LNG supply came into focus.

The biggest moves were posted at the front-end, with the November 24 front-month contract lifting by circa 2.5p/therm (0.08p/kWh) when compared to its previous close.

On the LNG front, the number of cargoes currently expected to arrive at UK terminals in October is projected to fall sharply when compared to the same month last year. According to the latest shipping signals, 2 vessels are expected to arrive by the end of the month, bringing the monthly total to 4 (down from 9 for October 2023).

At the same time, strengthening Norwegian output may have helped to cap gains across the near-curve. Data from state-owned operator Gassco shows that flow nominations via the Langeled pipeline approached near-nameplate capacity on Monday after reaching 69.59mcm/d, representing a sharp increase of 17.7% when compared to Fridays gas-day.

This morning, gas prices have opened at a slight discount when compared to Mondays close, with the Summer 25 front-season contract currently being offered circa 0.5p/therm (0.017p/kWh) below its previous settlement at the time of writing.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power