Uncertainty around US & Ukraine peace talks drives market volatility

Uncertainty surrounding US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia led to volatile price action at the NBP on Tuesday.

Gas prices opened on a positive note in the morning following reports of a significant Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Moscow region overnight.

From there, key contracts softened slightly after comments from the head of Ukraine’s presidential office indicated that ceasefire negotiations between US and Ukrainian diplomats in Jeddah had ‘started very constructively’.

Uncertainty seemingly got the better of market sentiment later in the afternoon however, with the Summer 25 front-season contract posting daily substantial gains of 5p/therm (0.17p/kWh) by the end of the day.

Yesterday evening, it was confirmed that the talks in Saudi Arabia had been successful, with the US and Ukraine agreeing on an undisclosed 30-day ceasefire proposal.

It’s understood that the US will promptly present this to Russia on Ukraine’s behalf, but it remains unknown if the proposal, in its current state, will be deemed acceptable by the Kremlin.

This morning, although the NBP had initially opened very much in line with yesterdays close, key contracts are now being offered at a slight discount when compared to their previous settlement, at time of writing.

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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power