Wholesale prices rebound amid supply issues
Gas prices rebounded at the NBP on Monday amid declining wind output and an uncertain supply outlook.
Gains in excess of 3p/therm (0.1p/kWh) were posted across the front-end when compared to the previous close, which could be largely attributed to issues with supply, a demand dynamic as well as other international events.
According to data from National Grid, wind output declined by around 55.6% when compared to Fridays gas-day, with gas-fired power (CCGT) ramping up by 40.9% across the same period in order to account for the shortfall. The British system was subsequently undersupplied throughout the session as a result, though a small increase in LNG flows offset higher power demand (National Gas).
A lack of confirmation regarding the potential Azeri-EU transit deal may have also fed into the bullish sentiment.
Ukraine (whose pipeline infrastructure would be required) has yet to confirm its involvement in the talks and Slovakia’s main gas transporter SPP has denied the report, suggesting that the signing of any such deal is not imminent.
In other news, voting for the US Presidential Election has commenced today. It’s expected to be a tight race that will see Kamala Harris take on former President Donald Trump.
The market has opened at a slight premium this morning, with the Summer 25 front-season contract currently being offered circa 0.5p/therm (0.02p/kWh) above its previous settlement, although many contracts have yet to trade at time of writing
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Price commentary courtesy of Crown Gas and Power 